San Saba Pecan Market Update

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September 2018

Supply and Consumption:

Projected 2018 US Crop
345,000,000 Lbs.
Projected 2018 Mexican Crop Inports
160,000,000 Lbs.
Projected Carry In
150,000,000 Lbs.

With a projected supply of 655 million lbs., the 2018 pecan harvest will be the largest since 2012. With the harvest already starting in a few select areas across the US, the above numbers most likely predict the supply situation accurately. Though this is a large supply number, consumption continues to increase globally and additional supply will allow for increased consumption and market expansion.

Current Kernel Conditions:

Very little availability remains for current crop. After a slow summer, demand has increased over the last six weeks as retailers begin to stock for the holiday season. Some early pressure on first available new crop will likely provide a floor for prices through the holiday season.

Market Forecast:

The US and China trade war continues to increase with little evidence of an agreement being reached in the near term. While China is a key market for US pecans, it’s important to remember the homogeneous nature of the North American pecan market. Despite the tariff, a significant volume of pecans will likely be exported from the North American market to China, just predominantly of Mexican origin. The current supply numbers are some of the largest of the last half decade, and subsequently it’s possible that quality issues arise (typical in high volume crop years). All current signs point to a weakening market, but seasonal demand, increased industry marketing, and consumer consumption patterns will help balance the increased supply over the course of 2019.

We will continue to keep you updated as the season progresses.

- The San Saba Team

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